Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Yaya Jammeh cannot survive presiding over a divided army

Yaya Jammeh is presently presiding over a divided army at best, and an army in complete disarray, at worst.  He, therefore, cannot survive the current configuration as the lines dividing the various factions become discernible - namely along ethnic lines; the handy work of Jammeh that is coming to haunt him.

Because of the breakdown of the military and security structure put in place by Jammeh, he has come to distrust everyone, as a result of the exposure of the weakness of security apparatus the 30 December events brought about.

The events may not have achieved its ultimate goal of rallying the troops against the dictatorship, as widely reported in US news outlets as the aim of the attackers, but the events did succeed in exposing a serious weakness in Jammeh's security apparatus that was not designed to counter an external insurgent attack.   This outcome is not surprising as one of those who led the attack was a former Head of the State House guard.

Presently, there are several senior military and security personnel under effective house arrests in Jammeh's home village, some of whom have not been seen in public since the event of 30 December.

Meanwhile, Jammeh and the nervous remnants of his forces are indiscriminately arresting civilians of relatives, friends and former colleagues of those accused of staging the attack on State House.  As a close associate of Jammeh observed "he can arrest all he wants, things will never be the same."

Perhaps this officer, like many observers of the Gambian military, has finally sense the vulnerability of the Gambian dictator and his security structure which will be tested again and again.