Thursday, November 14, 2013
Banjul - Taipei diplomatic rupture
Economic and financial aid was extended in 1995 to a military regime that was fighting for its political survival in exchange for the recognition of Taiwan as the legitimate representative of the Chinese people. Initially, the financial aid was generalized to help the Armed Forces Provisional Ruling Council (AFPRC) but the aid soon took a personal coloration that went straight into the hands of Yaya Jammeh for distribution as he saw fit. For instance, shortly after recognition of Taiwan, the AFPRC received $35 million in financial assistance, part of which went directly into the pockets of Jammeh, Council members and a couple of civilians who facilitated the diplomatic switch of allegiance from the People Republic of China to Taiwan.
Prior to the Sino-America rapprochement in 1973, ideology was a prime motivator for maintaining relations with Taiwan as they distinguish themselves as democratic and anti-communist. It was this ideological motivation that drove the Jawara regime, that pride itself as democratic and anti-communist, to initially recognized Taiwan before switching to the People's Republic of China. The end of the Cold War saw the end of the ideology as the selling point for recognition in exchange for economic and financial motivation. Trading recognition for cash became very attractive for small and poor countries in Africa and the island countries in the Caribbean and Oceania. It may be pure coincidence but it is worth noting that most of these Island states with diplomatic ties to Taiwan like Nauru, st. Lucia, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis and St. Vincent and the Grenadines are all members of the Commonwealth. Most of these countries shared the same United Nations office complex in New York paid for by the Commonwealth from where The Gambia was served notice to vacate following its decision to withdraw its membership from the organization.
Just as the reasons for withdrawal from the Commonwealth was unclear, Gambia's decision to severe diplomatic ties with Taiwan is equally unclear, but certainly not new or unusual. For instance, since originally forging diplomatic ties Taiwan in 1962, Senegal and Central African Republic have switched five times between Taiwan and China, initially driven by ideology but later by economic and financial. Ten countries, including African countries like Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Gambia, Lesotho and Liberia have switched more than once.
Taiwan's foreign aid budget in 2009 was estimated at nearly $500 million. Because the Taiwanese aid package to the Gambia and its' administration is not transparent, it is difficult to estimate its size. The public is provided with a monthly dose of check presentations by the Taiwanese Ambassador to The Gambia for education, agriculture and a varieties of other sectors. These checks end up in special below-the-line accounts. It is not unusual for some of them to be cashed and carded off towards the State House. Taiwan has helped trained numerous Gambians in many fields, particularly in ITC and petroleum engineering.
The personalization of Taiwan financial aid package is perhaps the main reason for the break in diplomatic relations. Jammeh became the face of everything Taiwan. The checks are presented to him or his Vice President at State House. The huge scholarship program with directly under Jammeh's control. He is the one who selects the recipients, often without regard to qualification and/or aptitude or competence. It is ironic that one of the reasons advanced for seizing power was that the former regime awarded scholarship to children of the 'elite' and ruling party supporters, yet Jammeh personally selects scholarship recipients from a pool of supporters of his political party and from members of his Jola tribe.
Personal demands of Yaya Jammeh on his Taiwanese friends have been unrealistic, be it financial or otherwise. He was not held in high esteem by some officials in both Taiwanese Foreign Ministry and at the Embassy in Banjul. Taiwanese in both Taipei and Banjul have used words like officials as "greedy, selfish and self-centered" to describe Jammeh because of the manner in which he spends financial aid and other demands he makes that were considered unreasonable. Until the rest of the facts that led to this abrupt rupture are known, it is safe to say that the cost-benefit analysis of the symbiotic relationship brought about because of the checkbook diplomacy has finally caught of with the parties. It has proven to be an expensive proposition from the point of view of Taiwan given the continued diplomatic isolation of The Gambia which is frustrating to Taipei because they see the withdrawal of membership from the Commonwealth as self-inflicting. After all, what use is one diplomatically isolated country to another equally diplomatically isolated country.
Jammeh will now be looking towards China, if he's not ready started, to replace Taiwan. China will certainly welcome The Gambia into the China fold but not under the same type of arrangement that Jammeh has enjoyed for 18 years with Taiwan. China's Africa policy, like its investment strategy has evolved over the years. Faced with a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly growing population, China has to feed its hungry factories to maintain the pace of economic growth and development. It sees Africa's natural resource potential as an integral part of its economic development strategy. Although it has huge investments in countries like Angola, Guinea and the DRC, China has elected to work closely with regional organizations, including the African Union.
Gambia obviously lacks the natural resource endowment of a DRC to enjoy the huge investments from China. It is, however, possible for the country to benefit from regional power projects or road transport projects linking major commercial ports and points within the ECOWAS region with Chinese investment funds. Any diplomatic relationship that will eventually be struck between China and The Gambia will not be as cozy as the one between Jammeh and Taiwan. Until then, we will try and piece together what really happened and why that led to this abrupt separation between two former close friends and allies. In doing so we must not rule our domestic Taiwanese politics which has seen a former president sent to prison for the misuse of presidential fund, or slush fund, used for pursuing Taiwan's diplomacy abroad.