Monday, January 6, 2014

Jammeh threatens to expose Taiwan corruption

His Excellency, Sheikh Professor Dr. Alhaji Yahya Abdul-Aziz Junkung Jamus Jammeh, the idiosyncratic Gambian dictator threatens to expose high level corruption within the Taiwanese government should accusations and criticism of his person and government persist.

Revelations that Jammeh demanded cash in excess of $ 10 million from Taiwan which was refused, came from senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan.                                                  

According to the Gambian dictator, he is in possession of what he characterized as "shocking" information, and warned his former friends "I will say what I have to say." The dictator is, of course, hoping that the Taiwanese authorities' criticism of him will cease with his threats to expose corruption in Ma's government.

The Gambian dictator made this threat against the present and previous governments of Taiwan in his end-of-year national television interview.  The sit-down interview was conducted by Gambia Radio and Television Service aired throughout the New Year. GRTS is government-owned and controlled.                            

The threat to expose high-level corruption of his former friends came after authorities at MOFA attributed the abrupt break up of diplomatic relations between Gambia and Taiwan to the incessant demands of the Gambian dictator for money - in cash and unreceipted - that could no longer be sustained nor maintained by the Ma Ying-jeou-led government. This revelation irked the dictator who, until this revelation, managed to keep 1.8 million Gambians, the poorest humans on earth, in the dark about the foreign aid he was receiving in their name.    

The announcement to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan came in a short release from the President's Office on the 15th November 2013, almost a month after a similar surprise move by the idiosyncratic and emotionally unstable Gambian leader when he withdrew his country's membership from the Commonwealth.  In both instances, neither the Gambian population through the National Assembly nor his cabinet was consulted.  In fact, his Foreign Minister read it, like the rest of the world, in the news. 

The Gambian leader painstakingly tried to separate the people of Taiwan from the current Mo government by reminding listeners that his problem is with the government and not with the people who 'will remain friends' with the Gambian people.  

Sunday, January 5, 2014

The Finance Minister tries to conceal the facts

Budget Speeches used to be Statements of Government Policy going into the new fiscal year, and a review of preceding years’ performance, in words and figures, but primarily in words.  The numbers portion of the process is contained in the Budget Estimates.  In both cases, however, budget implementation benchmarks served as measures of past, present and future performance.  It was also a place to announce new policy measures.  That was then, this is now.

We've combed through the Finance Minister's 42-page 2014 Budget Speech, and found nothing of substance except the regurgitation of the regime’s repeated promises to donors that it will be more fiscally responsible in the coming year.  It never does and we have demonstrated year after year that this regime has no intention of holding down domestic borrowing to a manageable or sustainable level because there is no one in The Gambia who will challenge the insatiable demands of Jammeh to satisfy his personal comfort and safety at the expense of everyone else.  He coughs, everybody jumps.

The brevity and inanity of the speech was an inevitability because of the casual treatment of important sectors of the economy received from the Hon. Minister was designed to conceal the fact that the 2014 Budget was no different from the last.  For example, the entire agriculture sector was treated to a 4-sentence 2-paragraph statement, and no mention of the groundnut sub-sector, the biggest foreign exchange earner.  The energy and petroleum sectors received a couple of sentences each, and nothing on exploration except to tell Gambians that the National Petroleum Company built several petrol stations at the cost of over a million dollars.  Who really cares?  Government should not be in the business of retailing petrol in the first instance. 

Gambia's foreign policy was treated to a whole sentence about the strategic interests of Gambia, and not a word about the fiscal impact, if any, the withdrawal would have following the withdrawal from the Commonwealth.  Nothing also on the severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan and the budgetary implications of such an asinine move WILL have, and consequently, what adjustments are called for and their budgetary implications.

GPA, NAWEC, SSHFC, GAMTEL and the other government parastatals were not treated individually, and nothing was said of their financial performance over the 2013 fiscal year, and certainly nothing about going forward with these bankrupt companies that are an obvious drag on the budget and the economy.  Since it is not a pretty story, the Finance Minister conveniently ignored them.  Gambians would have liked to hear from their government about plans to replace the decrepit Banjul – Barra ferries or the ‘floating coffins’ for short in which they are forced to travel in crossing the 7 nautical mile stretch each day to get to and from work or to the market place.  Heavy-duty Senegalese trucks that had to make a detour to the Bamba Tenda – Yelli Tenda crossing are now faced with another set of problems of having to pay in foreign currency, a policy that went into effect without notice resulting in boycotts of the ferry services by truck drivers.  The budget speech would have been an appropriate place to notify users in advance, but that is too much to ask of a regime that seem to get a kick out of inflicting pain on its citizens as well as its neighbors.

 It is not until you get to the annexes, especially the pie charts, that one begins to see what the budget narrative tried to conceal.  This regime, as I have said in earlier posts, intends to continue to pursue its failed policies of spending disproportionate amount of our taxes on the security of one man through the President's Office and allied security agencies, primarily Defense and Interior Ministries, at the expense of agriculture, trade, employment, health, social welfare and the development of the Gambian youth.  The pie charts clearly confirm our suspicions, no matter how hard the folks at the Finance Ministry tried to conceal the evidence in their presentations.  Again, Ministers and officials in the civil service will continue to dance to the tune of a dictator who has little or no regard for the general welfare of Gambians.  And until he's gotten rid off and soon, the budget will continue to reflect his wishes and those of his business associates, and not those of the Gambian taxpayer.



Saturday, January 4, 2014

The fuel shell game

About a couple of months ago, I was requested by a reader to look into the fuel sector; more specifically, the rising pump price of fuel and its impact on development. Fuel is, of course, what drives the engine that drives the economy.  If it is unavailable or too expensive for users, the train comes to a complete halt.

After attempts at getting some information on fuel import figures and pricing structures under the current procurement arrangement, I hit a brick wall which did not come as a surprise.  I have known for sometime that this sector is shrouded in secrecy for reasons known to Jammeh, a couple of his foreign business partners, and restricted number of Customs officials.

In the past, foreign oil companies operating in The Gambia (Shell, BP, Elf ) took turns in importing petrol, gas oil and kerosene.  The system worked well when foreign exchange was available.  Those who were around, remembered pre-Economic Recovery Program when foreign exchange was scarce, and the ensuing long lines at the petrol pumps. However, after the ERP, foreign exchange shortages became a thing of the past.  The fuel procurement system put in place served Gambia reasonably well.

However, after 1994, it appeared that everything that worked in the First Republic was a target for destruction by a group of soldiers who were more interested in raiding the Treasury than making things better for Gambians, as they promised when they seized power illegally.  Government procurement system was one of the first targets of the junta.  First, by meddling with the Major Tenders Board of the Ministry of Finance and then taking it over completely.  To help ease the foreign exchange pressures of government, the European Union initiated a Fuel Grant balance of payment support program whereby they will pay for our fuel import requirements through public tender, and proceeds from the sale will go  towards the financing of EU projects locally.  Apart from the usual complaints from, and bickering among bid losers, the program went extremely well with no major hitches and certainly no scandal of any sort, at least, not while I was in charge of the program 1989 - 1992.

Now, the Major Tender Board is barely functional since all government procurement is doing by Yaya Jammeh, including all fuel purchases that involves public finances.  Even private sector procurement is limited to a single private supplier, selected by Jammeh which makes access to information extremely difficult.   In short, and like everything else in Yaya Jammeh's Gambia, fuel procurement has been centralized and importation limited by government fiat.  Shell and Elton take their supplies from Jammeh's cronies.  When there is severe shortage, Elton might be allowed to scrounge around Senegal for supplies.

As we speak, there's petrol shortage in The Gambia caused by lack of foreign exchange, and also because of the monopoly created by Jammeh primarily to benefit his family members and business associates thus preventing other players from importing fuel.  The shortages and other interruptions in the system, will be further complicated by the International Monetary Fund's program with the government which calls for the gradual elimination of the fuel subsidy which would mean higher fuel prices.

The Jammeh regime has decided that they will eliminate the subsidizes gradually, over time which explains why there's periodic increases in prices throughout 2013 - a scenario that will repeat itself in 2014 until the subsidies have been completely eliminated.  Fuel price in 2014 is expected to rise another 15 - 20% further dampening any economic recovery efforts which will only add to the growing discontent and unpopularity of Yaya Jammeh and his regime.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Gambians must adjust to the new normal

I know it pains to admit that our economy has been destroyed and our comparative advantage squandered and surrendered to Senegal in the process.

But in order to prescribe a well-articulated economic recovery program (yes, one will be needed after Jammeh is done with the mismanagement of the economy), we must be ready to, first, accept that the Gambian economy is in a coma and, second, a regional approach is needed to resuscitate it back to life which cannot take place without the cooperation of Senegal.

Both the TransGambia Bridge project, and a closer and formal 'political/economic' cooperation Agreement between the two countries are not only consistent with the new reality, they may be the only viable options left for The Gambia to pursue, realistically.  Even joining the CFA zone is no longer an option because France is no longer disposed  to writing-off the subsidy that will inevitably result from such membership under the wing of Senegal. France has it's own budget problems.

The sad fact is that it didn't have to be this way, but was made possible by almost 20 unfettered years of mismanagement by a group of soldiers who'd never managed a household budget much less an economy, albeit the smallest economy on the continent. This is the new normal, and we must bring ourselves to dealing with it rather than bury our collective heads in the sand.  Senegal holds the trump card despite its own economic problems. 

The Gambian farmer is absent from the debate

There has been more political posturing by politicians and activists, and little of anything else, including the articulation of policy in a transitional setting.  Even more disheartening, in my view, is the total absence of the representation of the single most important interest group in the entire process - the Gambian farmer.

We've heard about the youth playing the central role, as if it was not a group of young, inexperienced and hardly educated folks, average aged 26, who landed us in the current mess in the first place, and about tribal balance or imbalance in the discussion but nothing else.

Political parties may point to their party manifestos, platforms and even their last political campaign and rally speeches and pamphlets as evidence to absolve themselves of this charge, and they may have a point.  But this is a new time and space where all issues are and should be articulated for the benefit of all.  What good is it if the articulation of the party's agriculture sector policy is not the central theme of the process so that ordinary Gambians and prospective supporters alike can assess how it will impact the farming community and the national economy.

The rural farming community has suffered in the hands of the current regime as much as the urban-based civil servants, and the political opposition.  Rural dwellers and farmers may not have suffered physical torture at the hands of the notorious but have suffered economic and financial loss through the A(F)PRC's inappropriate policy measures, especially in the groundnuts sector which is still the single most important sub-sector, both in terms of foreign exchange generation and employment.

There has been a steady decline in groundnut production, especially since the advent of the A(F)PRC regime, signalling inappropriate policies at best and benign neglect as worst.  A shift from groundnut to other crops, both cash and food crops, is a business decision in response to market conditions where the producer price is not attractive enough, and the government continues to credit buy, resulting in huge sums owed them by government.  Consequently, farmers have shifted to producing food crops for sustenance of the family. Public investment in the sector does not seem to reflect the public commitments and pronouncement made by the regime.  We have made numerous presentations in recent blogs about this issue, and we will continue to do so in the future.

Agricultural diversification policy of past years brought us fruit tree (primarily cashew nut), and sesame seed cultivation.  Should the policy be reinforced and expanded?  Is the idea of re-establishing a marketing board and a Cooperative Union worth revisiting?  I heard one politician argue in favor of bringing back to life the GCU because he's dissatisfied with the current system. Something is evidently wrong with the groundnut marketing arrangements as currently constituted which demands aggressive action to rescue the farmer from a system that is clearly in favor of the buyer instead of the seller, that is the farmer.  What of the livestock, fisheries and water resources sub-sectors.

The A(F)PRC regime is now suggesting that they want to transform the subsistence agriculture to commercial agriculture, and in order to achieve this new goal, they recognize that they must invest more in research, science and technology.  Agriculture research under Jammeh has suffered severe cuts in budget allocation which has resulted in poor agricultural extension services, agronomic research and general support services for the sector. These areas are hardly mentioned in any discussion, and yet they, together with the cash and food crop sectors form the backbone of our economy.  It is time for political parties and activists alike to articulate and debate the plight of the Gambian farmer and the policy options to help ameliorate the plight of the Gambian farmer.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Thanks for a great lunch and a Happy New Year to all

I did not intend to blog on the first day of 2014 but decided otherwise because of a friend and colleague who wondered, over a delicious steak lunch at The Capital Grill in Tyson's Corner, whether I had something for followers of the blog in the New Year. It was obvious to me, being the avid student of international politics he is, and who loves Africa as much as Africans, he had more than the traditional New Year wishes in mind.

After talking business prospects in 2014, the conversation took a more serious turn to Washington's Smithsonian Zoo where disaster struck last week when a poor white-tailed deer strayed into a cheetah's den with expected outcome.  What was unexpected, from the point of view of my friend and colleague, was the reportage of one of the finest papers in the world. - the Washington Post.  While the Wapo reporter left little doubt about the fate of the deer, he found it necessary to assure the world that the cheetahs came out of the incident unscathed.  I guess he was expecting the deer to ram his antlers into the belly of the predator, my friend and colleague retorted.  It did not come as a surprise when he told me he immediately took to his pen to chastise the reporter for expected too much from the white-tail.  The reporter or editors did write back to my friend to say something about lack of space or something to that effect, with probably ashen face.  I think his instincts were more toward maximizing Wapo's embarrassment than toward expression of sympathy for the white-tail.  In fact, he seemed to have been wishing for more of these lunch-hour visits to help control the deer population, not only around  Maryland's Rock Creek Park area but throughout the Fairfax-Loudoun (I live in the first and my friend lives in the second),  both Virginia counties where, I learned over lunch, there are more deer in these parts today than during the Revolutionary War.  The American War of Independence - the other name for the Revolutionary War -  is synonymous with the most prominent citizen of Fairfax County and the Chief Rebel against British rule - Jammeh will like this fellow - George Washington who became Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army.  Evidently, George failed where the tree-huggers of today succeeded in protecting the white-tailed deer without (or was it because of ) the firepower that he commanded.  Let me assure everyone that my colleague and friend loves animals.  He has a nice well-behaved dog and, according to him, a ferociously mean cat. By the sound of it, I think the cat scares the bejesus out of my friend and colleague more than the dog.

After the animal talk, the conversation suddenly turned to South Sudan.  You never know what topic comes next from my friend and colleague - be ready to discuss anything from astronomy to zoology.   By this time, I had signaled the waiter to bag my left-over (too expensive a) steak to leave behind before I washed it all down with double espresso coffee.  It was all on him.  Thank you very much,  my friend and colleague.  Let's continue the story - American and other foreign  journalists, my friend and colleague lamented, do not understand Africa and their lack of knowledge is reflected in their reporting, especially about South Sudan which only adds to the confusion of an already confused state of affairs.  He believes what's going on there is not tribal-based but, unfortunately,  foreign journalists have succeeded in convincing the rest of the world that it is tribal. [ I have expressed similar view a day or two earlier that what started out as pure political power play is slowly morphing into a full-blown tribal conflict].  I don't think my friend likes journalists that much, especially American and foreign ones. [Something tells me I may hear from him on this point]  First, it was the poor Washington Post reporter.   Now it's some Reuters or AP reporters reporting from Juba and other western capitals.  I am not sure how the conversation evolved into it but I noticed that my friend and colleagues assertion that solutions to these types of conflicts was very similar to the views expressed recently about the South Sudan conflict by Yaya Jammeh.   That African problems must be solved by Africans and not left to whims of the U.N Security Council or America, for that matter, was Jammeh's advise to the African Union's Peace and Security Council on the eve of the New Year in The Gambian capital.  When I pointed out to my friend and colleague that his views on South Sudan was similar to Jammeh's, he said something to the effect that seeing eye-to-eye on some issues, however rarely, is inevitable.  He said so grudgingly because I know how he feels about Jammeh.

This inevitably led to The Gambia and the deteriorating governance conditions there.  Predictably, I sprung into action by suggesting that the issue of transition from the current dictatorship to the re-establishment of democracy is much more complex than folks in the Gambia diaspora - at least from the vocal minority.  I said, almost 20-years of Jammeh has transformed both the political culture and the psyche of Gambians. The freedom of speech and expression which Gambians took for granted during the Jawara era has gradually been replaced by the repression of expression, by turning every body into an informer.  What is going on in The Gambia, I said, was no different from what is going on presently in North Korea - husbands and wives do not trust each other for fear that one is an informer of the state, fathers turn in their sons to the state security apparatus, maids turn against their employers, discussions around the restaurant table stops the moment a waiter approaches the table because he or she is likely a paid informed of the dreaded National Intelligence Agency.  It is all so unGambian, I said.

A good number of the baby boomer generation has either been exiled, jailed, killed or declared "non-persons" which bans them from ever being employed by government or the private sector,  just like the Soviets used to do to opponents with serious implications for transition to democratic rule.  These were the highly-trained, experienced administrators and professionals who have shown the world their worth by playing a crucial part in the transition of East Timor into a thriving Timor Leste.  Most of these Gambian professionals and administrators have since joined the exile ranks in London, Washington, Stockholm and other Western capitals after the expiration of their contracts with the United Nations.  Because those left behind in The Gambia are the inexperienced and the ill-trained with no option of escaping the despotic environment, they are rendered dependent on a system that rewards sycophancy as the only means of advancement, and punishes independence of thought and action.  Transforming a police state ( Spain, South Africa, Brazil to name a few) into a democracy is a long and hard process that may take a generation or two, and The Gambia is no exception.  Whether we have the willing and the qualified are ready to sacrifice their new-found liberties that they grown to cherish coupled with the security and stable family life in the West, is the unknown factor.  The assumption here is that the process will not be interrupted by another internal military action by renegades, a highly likely possibility - given past experiences with military regimes in Africa.  It is only fair to warn Gambians that difficult times lie ahead.

On that note, I want to take this occasion to once more wish you all a Happy and prosperous New Year. 2014 is a watershed year which demands a higher level of debate by the opposition and political activists alike about the future of The Gambia, post-Jammeh.   The period of beating pots and pans is over.  The time for advancing clearing articulated transition framework is now.  On the issue of tribalism, it is a non-issue which should not occupy the time of any serious reformer committed to the transitioning of the current system to one of democracy, the rule of law and the development of a free enterprise environment.  Again, Happy New Year.

Monday, December 30, 2013

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